Commentary

Next week the Fed has its September meeting and will decide the next move for monetary policy. Markets are essentially – over 90% — certain that the FOMC will decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points … Read More →

The narrative around the macroeconomy has summoned the scary specter of stagflation. The growth story is relatively clear. We have lingering recession signals from 2023 that never coalesced into a real recession; the changing policy landscape is a catalyst for … Read More →

It’s no secret that the United States has a lot of debt to finance. If you’re on Truth Social or listen to long-only equity managers, you also know that interest rates are high – relative to the last decade. Issuing … Read More →

Fed Up? The Federal Reserve plays a crucial, underappreciated role in the global economy: an easy scapegoat. Democrats and Republicans, Presidents, CEOs, day traders—all can and will blame the Fed for any market outcome that does not meet their personal … Read More →

When Donald Met Hashimoto President Trump has put an end to the will-they-won’t-they romcom drama around the proposed purchase of US Steel* by Japanese steel-manufacturer Nippon*. This all comes after President Biden rejected the deal in January citing national security … Read More →

Deal or No Deal for Another 90 Days We got a deal! Or rather an agreement to walk back from the edge of an effective trade embargo for 90 days. For the time being, this has been good for the … Read More →

Help! Help! I’m being repressed! While the world’s focus remains on trade and the global flow of real goods, we need to discuss the global flow of financial capital. By accounting definition, a country’s current account – its balance of … Read More →

What are Treasury bonds really? They’re a bet that US institutions and norms are guaranteed to keep the car on the road. The world expects from the United States (relatively) moderate inflation, clear jurisprudence, political stability, trade cleared in dollars, … Read More →

There’s Something About Treasuries. What’s going on with Treasuries? Historically, whenever the market gets spooked, it turns toward Treasuries—no matter what. Instead, while the stock market has plummeted, ripped, and re-plummeted in response to trade developments, the entire Treasury curve … Read More →

April Fools?! Right?! I wanted to wait to write my note until after Tuesday’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. Then I waited another two days. I don’t want to be Captain Hindsight, but the market’s surprise feels foolish. The macro models … Read More →

Notes from the week We were able to attend the Exchange Conference this past week. The ETF-focused gathering was an opportunity for us to run due diligence on asset managers collected in one location. I had two big takeaways from … Read More →

Private markets are a growing interest for the institutional and individual investor. Institutional investors, who have long been attracted to the strong earnings of private equity, need to follow the trends in relationships between the fund-investing Limited Partners (LPs) and … Read More →

Rolling fields, rolling hills, rolling stone, rolling in the dough. And now, rolling recession? As we continue to assess macroeconomic uncertainty and whether a soft (or not so soft) landing is on the way, the term “rolling recession” has been … Read More →

The Fed’s announcement this past week sparked concern over 2024’s place in the economic cycle. Will inflation subside enough to lower rates by early spring? Will persistent high interest rates push the economy into a hard landing? Has the risk … Read More →